Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0628
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
640 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Northeast KS...North-Central MO...West-Central IL
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 161040Z - 161600Z
SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of convection with high rainfall rates
will be a problem through the mid to late morning hours from
eastern Kansas to west-central Illinois. Training convection may
lead to some instances of flooding through 11 am local time with
rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour at times.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar and infrared satellite imagery depict
two separate areas of concern. The first is a back-building MCS
over west-central Illinois with a new line of nearly stationary
convection centered near Route 36 in northern Missouri. The
second is a slightly more progressive but very intense MCS
crossing northeast Kansas, currently tracking along and just north
of the Interstate 70 corridor.
There is strong boundary layer moisture convergence just ahead of
an incoming cold front, and lift is also being provided by a
shortwave trough passing by to the north of this region. Model
forecast soundings indicate ample instability feeding into both of
these complexes from the south, with convection likely to increase
in coverage over the next few hours. Additionally, the latest CAM
guidance has been struggling to accurately depict the overall
evolution of this convection, but the latest ARW seems to have the
best overall depiction based on what is currently happening on
radar. Some instances of flash flooding will be possible with the
strongest and most persistent convection.