From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Monday, September 02, 2024 08:55:00
AWUS01 KWNH 021308
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-021905-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0961
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
907 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2024
Areas affected...west-central to western TX and far southeastern NM
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 021306Z - 021905Z
Summary...Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding will be
possible across portions of west-central into western TX and
perhaps far southeastern NM through 19Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2
in/hr and localized totals of 2-4 inches are expected.
Discussion...Radar imagery from 1245Z showed scattered showers
with embedded thunderstorms across central TX, increasing in
coverage toward the west into southeastern NM. 12Z RAOBs and GPS
data showed precipitable water values across the region were 1.5
to 2+ inches (higher to east), or between the 90th percentile and
the climatological max via SPC sounding climatology. The anomalous
moisture will be tempered a bit by marginal instability, currently
500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE via the SPC mesoanalysis, and extensive
cloud cover will likely limit significant increases in instability
into the early afternoon.
Broad easterly flow in the low levels between 15-25 kt will allow
upslope lift to couple with the right entrance region of a 50-70
kt upper level jet located over the northern TX Panhandle into the Ozarks...positioned just east of an upper level trough over
eastern NM. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely to
continue over the next several hours with bursts of higher
intensities as daytime heating acts to increase instability at
least modestly. Occasional instances of east-west training are
anticipated throughout the morning into the early afternoon, with
hourly rainfall peaking in the 1-2 inch range. Some spotty 2-4
inch totals are expected through 19Z which may produce isolated
spots of flash flooding, given pockets of lower flash flood
guidance scattered across the region.