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  • PTC Debby Flood Threat

    From Mike Powell@618:250/1 to All on Friday, August 09, 2024 10:03:00
    030
    WTNT34 KWNH 091439
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 29
    NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
    1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

    ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT EXISTS TODAY
    ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...41.7N 77.7W
    ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA
    ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of....
    * South Carolina
    * North Carolina
    * Virginia
    * Maryland
    * Eastern West Virginia
    * Pennsylvania
    * New York

    A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of...
    * New Jersey
    * Delaware
    * Northern Vermont
    * Northern New Hampshire

    A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of...
    * Maryland
    * Eastern Pennsylvania
    * Delaware
    * New Jersey
    * Southern New York


    Coastal Flood Advisories and Warnings are in effect for portions
    of...
    * Coastal Mid-Atlantic

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the coastal waters of...
    * Mid-Atlantic
    * Southern New England

    Wind Advisories are in effect for portions of...
    * Eastern Maryland
    * Delaware
    * Eastern Pennsylvania
    * New Jersey
    * Southern New York
    * Southern Connecticut
    * Northeast New York
    * Vermont


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby
    was located near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 77.7 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 37 mph (59
    km/h) and this motion is expected to continue, with a turn to the east-northeast later today and tonight.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

    RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
    of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of the
    coastal Carolinas today, with locally considerable flooding
    expected.

    From portions of northern Virginia through Upstate New York, 2 to 4
    inches of rainfall, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
    through late tonight. This will likely result in areas of
    considerable flash and urban flooding, as well as river flooding.

    For portions of Northern New England, 1 to 3 inches of rain with
    locally higher amounts are expected through Friday night. This will
    result in isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

    For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
    associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
    Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
    graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
    rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
    the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
    KWBC or at the following link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html .

    TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will shift into eastern
    Maryland, New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania and eastern New York
    today.

    WIND: Wind gusts of 30-50 MPH will be possible into tonight
    across portions of eastern Maryland, Delaware, southeast
    Pennsylvania, New Jersey, far southeast New York into Long Island,
    coastal Connecticut, and far northeast New York into Vermont. Given
    saturated ground conditions these winds may bring down trees and
    result in isolated to scattered power outages.

    SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast,
    Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England coast. These conditions are
    likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
    Please consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Taylor

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