324
WTNT34 KNHC 071154
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 79.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of the Savannah River to Surf City, North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City, North Carolina to Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the southeastern coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude
32.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Debby is moving toward the
northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north and
north-northwest is expected today, bringing the center of Debby to
the South Carolina coast by tonight or early Thursday. A faster
motion toward the north and north-northeast across the Carolinas and
the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region is expected on Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today or tonight before the
center of Debby reaches the coast of South Carolina. Weakening is
forecast to begin on Thursday after the center moves inland. Debby
is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic states on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently
reported at Murells Inlet South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the
coast of South Carolina within the tropical storm warning area
through Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the tropical storm warning area and possible within the
tropical storm watch area in North Carolina today and continuing
through Thursday.

STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

South Santee River, SC to Cape Fear, NC...2-4 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 9 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, leading to maximum storm
total amounts as high as 25 inches in South Carolina and 15 inches
in southeast North Carolina, broadening the area of considerable
flooding across portions of South Carolina and southeast North
Carolina through Friday.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts
is possible across southeast Georgia through Thursday, bringing
overall storm total amounts as high as 15 inches, which may
aggravate any ongoing flooding conditions.

From the Piedmont of South Carolina northward across portions of
Virginia, 3 to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are
expected through Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas
of considerable flash and urban flooding, with river flooding
possible.

From Maryland north through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4
inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected through
Saturday morning. This will likely produce considerable flash and
urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html .

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur over eastern North Carolina
and extreme eastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast through the end of the week. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

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Mike Powell wrote to All <=-

...DEBBY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

In East TN, they're calling for some rain from Debby here.

From MRX's AFD @ 2150 EDT tonight:

"This Evening/Tonight

Currently this afternoon, Tropical Storm Debby is around 50 miles
off the South Carolina coast with a frontal boundary centered to our
west. This evening, the expectation is for Debby to slowly move
towards the coast with the frontal boundary also shifting further
west as well. This setup will keep a focus for convection along
western areas, as well as further east closer to influence from the
tropical system. However, this activity will likely decrease
overnight, especially further west. The main result will be an
increase in cloud cover and continued northeasterly to easterly
winds.

Thursday

From the early morning and through the day on Thursday, Debby is
expected to move further inland towards northeastern South
Carolina as the Bermuda High continues to strengthen to its east.
As this happens, cloud cover will increase even more with outer
bands of precipitation expected to drift into the area from the
east. Much of the activity will be fairly limited in the western
half of the area with the focus being northeast Tennessee and into
southwest Virginia. As 850mb flow increases to in excess of 35
kts, the highest peaks of the mountains will likely see pretty
breezy conditions. However, any downsloping will be limited as the
flow becomes almost nearly parallel to the terrain through the
day. Places in the far eastern portions of the Tennessee mountains
and southwest Virginia will likely begin to pick up more notable
rainfall. Thankfully, a lot of these places have dried out since
the active pattern last week. Any risk for more organized
convection will be closer to the coast based on the track of these
remnants."

So we're missing the bad stuff but it'd be nice to get some more rain.

-- Sean

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