Mesoscale Discussion 1842
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024
Areas affected...portions of northeast Ohio into central Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 061459Z - 061630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase through early afternoon.
Multiple rounds of storms are possible, with damaging gusts as the
main threat, though a couple of tornadoes are also possible. A WW
issuance will eventually be needed.
DISCUSSION...Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are percolating in
intensity as they traverse a pronounced west-to-east oriented
baroclinic boundary positioned from eastern OH into central PA. With
continued surface heating and the approach of a 500 mb vort max over
the Great Lakes, storms should continue to increase in coverage and
intensity into early afternoon. 40+ kts of effective bulk shear,
driven by strengthening 700-500 mb flow approaching from the west,
will support organized updrafts amid 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. More
discrete storms could become supercellular, posing the threat for
damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes or instances of
large hail. It is also possible that an MCS (perhaps even a bow
echo) could develop over central PA later today, which could support
a corridor of narrow but focused damaging gusts along the baroclinic
boundary.
A WW issuance will likely be needed in the next couple of hours to
address the increasing severe threat.