AWUS01 KWNH 041815
FFGMPD
FLZ000-050013-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0802
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Areas affected...western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041813Z - 050013Z

Summary...Tropical Storm Debby continues to organize and spread
robust convection into the western Florida Panhandle. Flash flood
potential continues.

Discussion...Debby has exhibited strengthening across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico today. Additionally, a fetch of robust convection
within its eastern semicircle has expanded eastward to cover much
of the Florida Peninsula roughly from Gainesville south through
Naples and the western Keys. Several areas of 2-4 inch rainfall
totals have been observed, with the highest totals occurring from
Naples north to Fort Myers and Punta Gorda. Radar mosaic imagery
depicts many embedded convective elements streaming northward/north-northwestward within the overall fetch of
convection, promoting areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates (locally
higher) at times.

The ongoing scenario is expected to continue through the evening
and beyond. Not only is the dominant convective band (located
from near Tampa to Naples) continuing to be maintained with an
abundantly moist/unstable airmass, but additional strong
convection located within confluent low-level flow extending from
the Keys to roughly 70 miles west of Fort Myers will likely stream
into the region from the south and west. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr
rain rates are likely to continue, and another 2-4 inches of
rainfall can be expected across much of the discussion area.
Locally higher amounts remain possible where convective banding is
most focused and somewhat stationary through 00Z.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 29928372 29858284 29178181 28018121 26798079
25688090 25378122 25818167 26468218 27048239
27518266 27838283 28498273 28928291 29378328

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AWUS01 KWNH 041108
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-041707-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0973
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
708 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2024

Areas affected...northeastern Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041107Z - 041707Z

Summary...A few rounds of locally heavy rainfall are expected in
northeastern Florida near the Jacksonville Metro area. Isolated
instances of flash flooding are possible through at least 17Z/1p
EDT today.

Discussion...Latest radar mosaic imagery depicts a band of
convection extending from near Jacksonville, FL east-northeastward
to open Gulf Stream waters near 31.3N, -79.6W. This band of
convection was collocated with a surface front very near the
region, with focused convergence, appreciable instability (1500
J/kg MLCAPE), and high PW/moisture content (2.3 inch PW)
supporting deep convection with appreciable rainfall rates.
Steering flow aloft was weak, allowing cells to migrate slowly west/west-southwestward amid 20-kt easterly 850mb flow. This
regime was promoting slow movement and training of cells into the
Jacksonville Metro area, where MRMS and gauge estimates of 1-5
inch rainfall totals have been noted in a few spots over the past
12 hours.

The ongoing regime is expected to continue most of the day today,
with Gulf Stream convection migrating west-southwestward toward
northeastern Florida. Given the rates and potential for
persistence of rainfall/multiple rounds of cells, a few spots of
3-5 inch rainfall totals cannot completely be ruled out through
17Z. Some of this rainfall could occur over Jacksonville Metro
and pose at least localized issues with excessive runoff/flash
flooding.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30858155 30618094 30128066 29728067 29358096
29338181 29678273 30348265 30708214
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