ACUS03 KWNS 020724
SWODY3
SPC AC 020723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across much of the U.S. for Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that mid-level flow across the northern mid-latitudes
will remain amplified through this period, with a prominent
mid-level high continuing to evolve over the Canadian Yukon
Territory vicinity Sunday through Sunday night. Downstream,
seasonably strong cyclonic flow likely will be maintained across the
upper Great Lakes vicinity through the St. Lawrence Valley, to the
south of a prominent cyclone slowly shifting eastward across
northern Quebec.

In lower latitudes, a prominent high is forecast to remain centered
across the Four Corners vicinity, with ridging building along an
axis to its east, across the southern Rockies into the central Great
Plains. Within modest westerly flow on the northern periphery of
this ridging, low-amplitude troughing may progress across and
east-southeast of the northern Rockies into the Dakotas. However,
it appears that associated forcing for ascent will generally lag to
the cool side of a notable preceding surface cold front, which may
advance south and west of the Black Hills and through much of the
northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest by 12Z Sunday.

Beneath a plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, models indicate
that large potential boundary-layer instability may develop in a
pre-frontal corridor with daytime heating, probably across parts of
Nebraska and Iowa through southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois into
southern Lower Michigan by late Sunday afternoon. If forcing for
ascent becomes sufficient to support thunderstorm development within
this environment, forecast thermodynamic profiles appear conducive
to a risk for severe hail and wind in stronger storms. However, it
currently appears that any such activity may remain very isolated in
nature, with uncertainty in location and low coverage precluding
introduction of 5 percent severe probabilities.

Uncertainties also remain large concerning the tropical perturbation
emerging from the Caribbean, and its evolution near/west of the
Florida Gulf coast Sunday through Sunday night. At this point, the
risk for severe weather still appears low, but this could quickly
and substantively change, and trends will need to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 08/02/2024

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